Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Kyle Bradley
77%
23%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dos Anjos: 42 sig / 5 TD ·
Bradley: 21 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Kyle Bradley
38
Sig strikes landed
33
78
Sig strikes attempted
78
54
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rafael Dos Anjos
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner
Kyle Bradley
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27