Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gerald Harris
John Salter
72%
28%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Harris: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Salter: 7 sig / 1 TD
Gerald Harris
John Salter
40
Sig strikes landed
34
81
Sig strikes attempted
78
57
Total strikes landed
51
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
212s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gerald Harris
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
John Salter
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25