Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Nick Catone
Jesse Forbes
47%
53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Catone: 32 sig / 2 TD ·
Forbes: 32 sig / 0 TD
Nick Catone
Jesse Forbes
35
Sig strikes landed
39
74
Sig strikes attempted
83
47
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
102s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Catone
"The Jersey Devil"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Jesse Forbes
"Kid Hercules"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25