Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Daley
Dustin Hazelett
88%
12%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
27
Age
Δ 3y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Daley: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Hazelett: 4 sig / 0 TD
Paul Daley
Dustin Hazelett
37
Sig strikes landed
34
71
Sig strikes attempted
74
55
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Paul Daley
"Semtex"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Dustin Hazelett
"McLovin"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24