Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rashad Evans
Thiago Silva
50%
50%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evans: 12 sig / 8 TD ·
Silva: 31 sig / 0 TD
Rashad Evans
Thiago Silva
34
Sig strikes landed
38
75
Sig strikes attempted
80
51
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Thiago Silva
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27