Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Sam Stout
Joe Lauzon
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stout: 94 sig / 0 TD ·
Lauzon: 26 sig / 4 TD
Sam Stout
Joe Lauzon
35
Sig strikes landed
38
80
Sig strikes attempted
83
50
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Joe Lauzon
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26