Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Duane Ludwig
87%
13%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Miller: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Ludwig: 2 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Duane Ludwig
38
Sig strikes landed
32
79
Sig strikes attempted
75
50
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jim Miller
"A-10"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
Blue corner
Duane Ludwig
"Bang"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31