Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mark Munoz
Ryan Jensen
44%
56%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Munoz: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Jensen: 9 sig / 0 TD
Mark Munoz
Ryan Jensen
33
Sig strikes landed
40
71
Sig strikes attempted
84
46
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Ryan Jensen
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32