Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Mike Pyle
76%
24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 9y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ellenberger: 15 sig / 2 TD ·
Pyle: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Mike Pyle
36
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
75
53
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34