Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rafaello Oliveira
John Gunderson
40%
60%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oliveira: 21 sig / 6 TD ·
Gunderson: 1 sig / 1 TD
Rafaello Oliveira
John Gunderson
38
Sig strikes landed
39
84
Sig strikes attempted
80
51
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rafaello Oliveira
"Tractor"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
John Gunderson
"Quick Guns"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31