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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Saidov

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Dustin Jacoby
Muhammad Saidov
50% 50%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
W3
Current streak
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17
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Jacoby: 34 sig / 0 TD · Saidov: 60 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Jacoby
Muhammad Saidov
59
Sig strikes landed
45
112
Sig strikes attempted
102
75
Total strikes landed
81
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
71s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Dustin Jacoby

"The Hanyak"
23-9-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 17 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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L UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
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Blue corner

Muhammad Saidov

"Kubik"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31