Back to UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Main Welterweight

Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Abubakar Vagaev
Saygid Izagakhmaev
63% 37%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vagaev: 27 sig / 4 TD · Izagakhmaev: 33 sig / 2 TD
Abubakar Vagaev
Saygid Izagakhmaev
26
Sig strikes landed
24
50
Sig strikes attempted
45
51
Total strikes landed
52
2.1
Takedowns landed
2.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
261s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Abubakar Vagaev

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
L1

Saygid Izagakhmaev

22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
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