Main
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Magomed Ankalaev
Bogdan Guskov
72%
28%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
21-3-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-3-2
L1
Current streak
D1
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Ankalaev: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Guskov: 39 sig / 0 TD
Magomed Ankalaev
Bogdan Guskov
42
Sig strikes landed
33
83
Sig strikes attempted
72
63
Total strikes landed
38
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Magomed Ankalaev
21-3-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 12-2
Last 5
L
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
—
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
D
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
Blue corner
D1
Bogdan Guskov
"Hitman"
18-3-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
D
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—