Main
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov vs David Martinez
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Umar Nurmagomedov
David Martinez
71%
29%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
21-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-1
W2
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Umar Nurmagomedov
David Martinez
65
Sig strikes landed
43
134
Sig strikes attempted
110
85
Total strikes landed
60
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
195s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Umar Nurmagomedov
21-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
Blue corner
W3
David Martinez
15-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—