Prelims1
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Sam Patterson
61%
39%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
40
Age
Δ 10y
30
31-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-4-1
L1
Current streak
L1
20
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ponzinibbio: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Patterson: 64 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Sam Patterson
49
Sig strikes landed
38
107
Sig strikes attempted
103
67
Total strikes landed
55
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
70s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
20 fights · 12-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
Blue corner
L1
Sam Patterson
14-4-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—