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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Uran Satybaldiev vs Dustin Jacoby

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr ·Etihad Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Uran Satybaldiev
Dustin Jacoby
55% 45%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
32
Age
Δ 6y
38
10-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
23-9-1
W1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
17

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Uran Satybaldiev
Dustin Jacoby
39
Sig strikes landed
47
100
Sig strikes attempted
83
45
Total strikes landed
64
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
64s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Uran Satybaldiev

"Gorilla"
10-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
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L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
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Blue corner
W3

Dustin Jacoby

"The Hanyak"
23-9-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 17 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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L UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—