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Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Magomed Zaynukov
Damian Rzepecki
46% 54%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Zaynukov: 74 sig / 2 TD · Rzepecki: 16 sig / 1 TD
Magomed Zaynukov
Damian Rzepecki
34
Sig strikes landed
39
71
Sig strikes attempted
82
73
Total strikes landed
57
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
141s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Magomed Zaynukov

"Wild Chanko"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Damian Rzepecki

"The Butcher"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25