Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ismael Bonfim
Axel Sola
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
20-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-2-1
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bonfim: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Sola: 33 sig / 0 TD
Ismael Bonfim
Axel Sola
50
Sig strikes landed
49
105
Sig strikes attempted
119
61
Total strikes landed
67
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
47s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Ismael Bonfim
"Marreta"
20-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L1
Axel Sola
11-2-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—