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Prelims1 Lightweight

Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ismael Bonfim
Axel Sola
56% 44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
20-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-2-1
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Ismael Bonfim
Axel Sola
51
Sig strikes landed
47
106
Sig strikes attempted
116
64
Total strikes landed
65
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Ismael Bonfim

"Marreta"
20-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L1

Axel Sola

11-2-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Mur…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—