Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Milos Janicic
Noah Gugnon
69%
31%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Janicic: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Gugnon: 5 sig / 0 TD
Milos Janicic
Noah Gugnon
40
Sig strikes landed
35
81
Sig strikes attempted
77
58
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
175s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Milos Janicic
"The Cobra"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Noah Gugnon
"Guns"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26