Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jovan Leka
Max Gimenis
80%
20%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Jovan Leka
Max Gimenis
40
Sig strikes landed
24
76
Sig strikes attempted
44
64
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
171s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jovan Leka
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
L1
Max Gimenis
6-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
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