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Prelims1 Featherweight

Ezra Elliott vs Damien Anderson

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman ·Paycom Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ezra Elliott
Damien Anderson
72% 28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
26
Age
Δ 3y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 6 sig / 12 TD · Anderson: 7 sig / 0 TD
Ezra Elliott
Damien Anderson
38
Sig strikes landed
33
79
Sig strikes attempted
66
75
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
139s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ezra Elliott

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Damien Anderson

"Demon Hands"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30