Prelims1
Flyweight
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
·Paycom Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alden Coria
Stewart Nicoll
80%
20%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
13-3
Career record
Δ 15 pp
8-4
W2
Current streak
L3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Coria: 44 sig / 3 TD ·
Nicoll: 28 sig / 5 TD
Alden Coria
Stewart Nicoll
53
Sig strikes landed
31
106
Sig strikes attempted
84
80
Total strikes landed
41
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
203s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alden Coria
"Cobra"
13-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
L3
Stewart Nicoll
"Kakamora"
8-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Du…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—