Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
RJ Harris
Alvin Hines
71%
29%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
28
Age
Δ 7y
35
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Harris: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Hines: 11 sig / 0 TD
RJ Harris
Alvin Hines
62
Sig strikes landed
41
121
Sig strikes attempted
103
107
Total strikes landed
55
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
RJ Harris
"The Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L1
Alvin Hines
"Goozie"
7-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
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