Main
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
·Paycom Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jared Cannonier
Christian Leroy Duncan
31%
69%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
42
Age
Δ 11y
31
18-10
Career record
Δ 24 pp
15-2
L1
Current streak
W4
20
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cannonier: 15 sig / 5 TD ·
Duncan: 68 sig / 1 TD
Jared Cannonier
Christian Leroy Duncan
59
Sig strikes landed
61
106
Sig strikes attempted
123
77
Total strikes landed
78
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
52s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jared Cannonier
"The Killa Gorilla"
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
42
In our database
20 fights · 11-9
Last 5
L
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
Blue corner
W4
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
15-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—