Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Marc-Andre Barriault
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
39
Age
Δ 2y
36
21-14
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-12
L2
Current streak
L2
28
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Brad Tavares
Marc-Andre Barriault
58
Sig strikes landed
64
129
Sig strikes attempted
114
75
Total strikes landed
86
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
28 fights · 16-12
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Val…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 6-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—