Main
Middleweight
Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
·Paycom Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dricus Du Plessis
Kamaru Usman
78%
22%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
32
Age
Δ 7y
39
23-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-4
L1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Du Plessis: 136 sig / 0 TD ·
Usman: 92 sig / 0 TD
Dricus Du Plessis
Kamaru Usman
73
Sig strikes landed
70
143
Sig strikes attempted
131
101
Total strikes landed
111
1.0
Takedowns landed
4.0
3.6
Takedowns attempted
8.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
347s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dricus Du Plessis
"Stillknocks"
23-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
L
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
39
In our database
19 fights · 16-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—