Prelims1
Welterweight
Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
·National Gymnastics Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniil Donchenko
Theodor Berggren
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Donchenko: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Berggren: 23 sig / 0 TD
Daniil Donchenko
Theodor Berggren
48
Sig strikes landed
35
85
Sig strikes attempted
87
64
Total strikes landed
37
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
147s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Daniil Donchenko
15-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
Theodor Berggren
"Simba"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
26