Prelims1
Welterweight
Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
·National Gymnastics Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniil Donchenko
Andreas Gustafsson
79%
21%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 10y
35
15-2
Career record
Δ 13 pp
12-4
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Daniil Donchenko
Andreas Gustafsson
52
Sig strikes landed
45
96
Sig strikes attempted
96
62
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
118s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Daniil Donchenko
15-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Andreas Gustafsson
"Bane"
12-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—