Main
Flyweight
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
·National Gymnastics Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Asu Almabayev
Charles Johnson
80%
20%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
32
Age
Δ 3y
36
24-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
20-8
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Asu Almabayev
Charles Johnson
46
Sig strikes landed
45
91
Sig strikes attempted
91
69
Total strikes landed
63
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
8.7
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
318s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
24-3
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Johnson
"InnerG"
20-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Val…
—
L
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—