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Main Middleweight

Abus Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres ·National Gymnastics Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Abus Magomedov
Michal Oleksiejczuk
71% 29%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
36
Age
Δ 4y
31
28-8-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-9
L1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
18

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Abus Magomedov
Michal Oleksiejczuk
39
Sig strikes landed
40
79
Sig strikes attempted
81
51
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
124s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Abus Magomedov

28-8-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
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W UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
W3

Michal Oleksiejczuk

"Hussar"
23-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 18 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
W UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
W UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—