Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vinicius Oliveira
Andre Fili
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
23-5
Career record
Δ 18 pp
25-14
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Oliveira: 105 sig / 0 TD ·
Fili: 40 sig / 0 TD
Vinicius Oliveira
Andre Fili
63
Sig strikes landed
48
138
Sig strikes attempted
130
86
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Vinicius Oliveira
"LokDog"
23-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
Blue corner
L1
Andre Fili
"Touchy"
25-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
26 fights · 13-12
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Val…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—