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Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Murtazali Magomedov
34% 66%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
34
Age
Δ 8y
27
L1
Current streak
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5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Murtazali Magomedov
38
Sig strikes landed
36
72
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
78
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
42s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Melsik Baghdasaryan

"The Gun"
8-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
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Blue corner

Murtazali Magomedov

"The Highlight"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27