Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andre Lima
Kevin Borjas
73%
27%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
12-0
Career record
Δ 38 pp
10-6
W4
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lima: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Borjas: 51 sig / 0 TD
Andre Lima
Kevin Borjas
53
Sig strikes landed
36
110
Sig strikes attempted
92
75
Total strikes landed
43
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.2
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
224s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Andre Lima
"Mascote"
12-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
Blue corner
L2
Kevin Borjas
"El Gallo Negro"
10-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—