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Prelims1 Featherweight

Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gaston Bolanos
Michael Aswell Jr.
28% 72%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
8-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Gaston Bolanos
Michael Aswell Jr.
51
Sig strikes landed
51
115
Sig strikes attempted
128
65
Total strikes landed
68
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
105s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Gaston Bolanos

"The Dreamkiller"
8-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
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L UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
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W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
Blue corner
L1

Michael Aswell Jr.

"The Texas Kid"
11-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Mur…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—