Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jhonata Diniz
Jose Montanha
76%
24%
Why
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Jhonata Diniz
Jose Montanha
47
Sig strikes landed
43
97
Sig strikes attempted
101
67
Total strikes landed
54
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
-0.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
38s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jhonata Diniz
9-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
L
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
Jose Montanha
0-0
Career record
Age
30