Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Allan Nascimento
Mitch Raposo
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
64"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
23-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-3
W4
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Allan Nascimento
Mitch Raposo
30
Sig strikes landed
15
53
Sig strikes attempted
30
57
Total strikes landed
29
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
316s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Allan Nascimento
"Puro Osso"
23-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W1
Mitch Raposo
11-3
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—