Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bia Mesquita
Melissa Mullins
67%
33%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
35
Age
Δ 0y
35
8-0
Career record
Δ 30 pp
7-3
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mesquita: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Mullins: 10 sig / 1 TD
Bia Mesquita
Melissa Mullins
32
Sig strikes landed
26
58
Sig strikes attempted
54
77
Total strikes landed
47
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
-0.10
275s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Bia Mesquita
"The Lady GOAT"
8-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Val…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
Blue corner
L1
Melissa Mullins
"No Mess"
7-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—