Back to UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Bia Mesquita
Melissa Mullins
62% 38%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
35
Age
Δ 0y
35
8-0
Career record
Δ 30 pp
7-3
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Bia Mesquita
Melissa Mullins
32
Sig strikes landed
30
58
Sig strikes attempted
55
77
Total strikes landed
56
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
261s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
47%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Bia Mesquita

"The Lady GOAT"
8-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Val…
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W UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
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Blue corner
L1

Melissa Mullins

"No Mess"
7-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—