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Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ion Cutelaba
Navajo Stirling
46% 54%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
32
Age
Δ 4y
29
21-11-1
Career record
Δ 36 pp
10-0
W1
Current streak
W4
20
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Ion Cutelaba
Navajo Stirling
35
Sig strikes landed
52
81
Sig strikes attempted
98
55
Total strikes landed
77
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
82s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ion Cutelaba

"The Hulk"
21-11-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 20 fights · 9-10
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Val…
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L UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
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W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
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L UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
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Blue corner
W4

Navajo Stirling

10-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. P…
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W UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
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W UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—