Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manel Kape
Kyoji Horiguchi
27%
73%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
63"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
23-7
Career record
Δ 11 pp
37-5
W3
Current streak
W5
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Manel Kape
Kyoji Horiguchi
59
Sig strikes landed
58
133
Sig strikes attempted
127
71
Total strikes landed
73
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
26s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
23-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
Blue corner
W5
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
37-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—