Back to UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry ·Xfinity Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Rafael Tobias
Lucas Fernando
62% 38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
23
Age
Δ 6y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Tobias: 13 sig / 1 TD · Fernando: 69 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Tobias
Lucas Fernando
36
Sig strikes landed
43
84
Sig strikes attempted
88
53
Total strikes landed
57
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Rafael Tobias

"Bipolar"
14-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
—
Blue corner

Lucas Fernando

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30