Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Farid Basharat
John Garza
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
29
Age
Δ 5y
24
W6
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Basharat: 86 sig / 5 TD ·
Garza: 82 sig / 0 TD
Farid Basharat
John Garza
64
Sig strikes landed
33
103
Sig strikes attempted
81
106
Total strikes landed
42
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
307s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Farid Basharat
"Ferocious"
16-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
W
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
Blue corner
John Garza
"Mowgli"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24