Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ryan Gandra
Zach Reese
62%
38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
10-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
10-4
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Ryan Gandra
Zach Reese
26
Sig strikes landed
24
55
Sig strikes attempted
55
36
Total strikes landed
33
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ryan Gandra
"Problema"
10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
—
Blue corner
L1
Zach Reese
"Savage"
10-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Bro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—