Prelims2
Middleweight
Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Damian Pinas
Cesar Almeida
87%
13%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
24
Age
Δ 14y
38
10-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
7-3
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pinas: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Almeida: 37 sig / 1 TD
Damian Pinas
Cesar Almeida
31
Sig strikes landed
25
84
Sig strikes attempted
53
42
Total strikes landed
30
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.0
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
142s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Damian Pinas
"The Baba Yaga"
10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
—
Blue corner
L1
Cesar Almeida
"Cesinha"
7-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—