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Prelims1 Middleweight

Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Damian Pinas
Cesar Almeida
86% 14%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
24
Age
Δ 14y
38
10-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
7-3
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Damian Pinas
Cesar Almeida
30
Sig strikes landed
26
83
Sig strikes attempted
53
42
Total strikes landed
32
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.8
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
142s
Control time
26s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
49%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Damian Pinas

"The Baba Yaga"
10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
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Blue corner
L1

Cesar Almeida

"Cesinha"
7-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
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W UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
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L UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
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