Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alessandro Costa
Cody Durden
75%
25%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
17-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
19-10-1
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Costa: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Durden: 28 sig / 0 TD
Alessandro Costa
Cody Durden
41
Sig strikes landed
29
80
Sig strikes attempted
72
58
Total strikes landed
45
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
102s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Du…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
Blue corner
W1
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
19-10-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 7-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Z…
—
L
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—