Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gable Steveson
Elisha Ellison
82%
18%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Gable Steveson
Elisha Ellison
49
Sig strikes landed
33
76
Sig strikes attempted
80
67
Total strikes landed
57
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gable Steveson
0-0
Career record
Age
26
Blue corner
L1
Elisha Ellison
"The Snack Panther"
5-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
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