Back to UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Nikita Krylov vs Robert Whittaker

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Robert Whittaker
62% 38%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
34
Age
Δ 1y
36
32-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
27-10
W1
Current streak
L2
21
UFC fights in our DB
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Krylov: 51 sig / 3 TD · Whittaker: 54 sig / 0 TD
Nikita Krylov
Robert Whittaker
53
Sig strikes landed
59
101
Sig strikes attempted
148
60
Total strikes landed
84
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
108s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Nikita Krylov

"The Miner"
32-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 21 fights · 12-9
Last 5
W UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
Blue corner
L2

Robert Whittaker

"The Reaper"
27-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 24 fights · 17-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—