Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cory Sandhagen
Mario Bautista
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
18-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
18-3
L1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Cory Sandhagen
Mario Bautista
74
Sig strikes landed
75
136
Sig strikes attempted
145
88
Total strikes landed
95
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.9
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cory Sandhagen
18-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
L
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. O…
—
L
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—