Main
Lightweight
Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Benoit Saint Denis
Paddy Pimblett
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-3
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-5
W4
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Benoit Saint Denis
Paddy Pimblett
54
Sig strikes landed
54
119
Sig strikes attempted
97
68
Total strikes landed
78
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
—
W
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
Blue corner
L1
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
23-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
L
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
—
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—