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Main Flyweight

Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Brandon Royval
Lone'er Kavanagh
45% 55%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
17-10
Career record
Δ 29 pp
11-1
L2
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Brandon Royval
Lone'er Kavanagh
72
Sig strikes landed
63
152
Sig strikes attempted
132
84
Total strikes landed
76
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
84s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Brandon Royval

"Raw Dawg"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
L UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
W UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
L UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Blue corner
W1

Lone'er Kavanagh

11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
L UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
W UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
W UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…