Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brandon Royval
Lone'er Kavanagh
50%
50%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
17-10
Career record
Δ 29 pp
11-1
L2
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Royval: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Kavanagh: 7 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Royval
Lone'er Kavanagh
72
Sig strikes landed
63
153
Sig strikes attempted
132
86
Total strikes landed
76
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
108s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
L
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W1
Lone'er Kavanagh
11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kav…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—