Back to UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Prelims1 Featherweight

Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Luke Riley
Kai Kamaka III
68% 32%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
27
Age
Δ 4y
32
14-0
Career record
Δ 30 pp
19-7-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Luke Riley
Kai Kamaka III
64
Sig strikes landed
52
123
Sig strikes attempted
107
101
Total strikes landed
57
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
105s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Luke Riley

14-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Mur…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1

Kai Kamaka III

"Da Fighting Hawaiian"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Du…
—
D UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—